With growing controversy about the future of the NATO Pact with Russia and the stalled START Treaty, the political prowess of both national leaders is in question. The Russian and U.S. presidents made START a part of their efforts to "reset" bilateral ties; however, the political fallout from the nuclear treaties may be career ending. Should the US Senate fail to ratify the agreement, President Medvedev risks domestic embarrassment, while questions about President Obama’s international leadership abilities return to the forefront. We will soon see how important these agreements are to not only the planet but individually to these world leaders.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev
In a seemingly defensive maneuver, President Medvedev anticipated domestic problems and curtailed his euphoria over both deals. Military leaders and Kremlin hardliners demanded linkage between the missile shield agreement and provisions of the START Treaty. Commenting on the shield, Medvedev was quoted by Alan Clendenning of the Associated Press on Saturday November 20, 2010, “Our participation has to be a full-fledged exchange of information, or we won't take part at all.”
Konstantin Kosachyov, head of the Russian State Duma committee for international relations, told RIA Novosti in February, "If the connection between the strategic arms reduction treaty and missile defense is not exhaustively fixed... this would automatically create obstacles for subsequent ratification….” Moreover, subsequent ratification is exactly what Medvedev needs to succeed. Failure would, "…’raise doubts about the 'reset' and undermine [the] position of Medvedev who placed his bets on that,’ said Sergei Markov, a leading lawmaker with the ruling United Russia party led by former President Vladimir Putin,” according to the AP report.
US President Barack Obama
President Obama’s domestic political problem may stem from his party’s recent defeat in national congressional elections. AFP reported on November 19, “Failure to pass the deal would suggest that Obama is weakened politically after the mid-term polls cast doubt on his ability to pass major legislation….” Invigorated with renewed political power the opposition Republicans, led by Arizona Senator Jon Kyl, are procrastinating. AFP reported, “10 Republican senators-elect called…for the ratification to be delayed ….[while Kyl] opposed a vote because of ‘complex and unresolved issues’.” Kyl doubted the pact “could be brought up in the ‘lame duck’ session this year,” the AFP argued.
Failure would not only represent a personal humiliation in front of world leaders for Obama but also renew speculation about his abilities in the international arena. Remembering the success of the “3 AM wakeup call” TV ad run by then Democratic Presidential Candidate Hilary Clinton, Republicans feel his failure could be an issue in the 2012 Presidential Campaign. On Saturday, Reuters reporters Gareth Jones and Gabriela Baczynska quoted Sergei Rogov, head of the Moscow-based U.S.A. and Canada Institute think-tank. “The failure to ratify the treaty will deal a very painful blow… [if] the administration can't deliver what it promised, it would seriously undermine Obama's position in the international arena."
We Will Hang Together or…
In a mutual sense of urgency, both presidents understand their vulnerable positions and are appealing to the wider populace. Obama told the Russian and American citizens in a speech after the NATO summit, published on the White House Website Sunday; it "turns a source of past tensions into a source of potential cooperation against a shared threat." In a sign of frustration Obama continued, "There is no other reason not to do it other than the fact that Washington has become a very partisan place.”
Medvedev urged U.S. lawmakers to approve the START treaty swiftly, while hedging his bets at home. "I am sure common sense will prevail," Medvedev said in the Reuters article as he urged the Duma to delay ratification until “Senate approval is certain.”
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and American President Barack Obama have a common stake in ratification of both treaties. Not only do these treaties protect their nations from nuclear annihilation; not only do they defend western and Russian cities from nuclear war; not only do they minimize the potential for the obliteration of the planet Earth, but also they protect the political future of both men. To politicians there may be nothing greater, to citizens of the world there is nothing more important; and while Obama and Medvedev have staked their political future on these treaties, the planet waits for the Senate and Duma.
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