Known as the architect of the highly controversial Single (Magic) Bullet Theory in the Warren Commission’s investigation of the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, Pennsylvania’s Senior Senator, Arlen Specter, has become highly controversial once again with his latest political move. In his news conference on the 28th of April Specter said, “As the Republican Party has moved farther and farther to the right, I have found myself increasingly at odds with the Republican philosophy….I am not prepared to have my 29-year record in the United States Senate decided by the Pennsylvania Republican primary electorate." A former republican senator who served with Specter was quoted on the CBS Evening News on May 1st, “Well now he’s the Democrat’s problem…There is just no way of predicting what he’s going to do next."
Republican Party's Internal Problem
- Boom – By way of Specter’s defection the Democrats will hold 58 Senate seats (including Al Franken of Minnesota) with Socialist Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Independent Joe Lieberman of Connecticut caucusing with the Democrats. This gives the Democrats a 60% majority in the Senate along with a highly popular Democratic President’s agenda.
- Blue State – The obvious gain for the Democrats (and problem for Republicans) was Specter’s actual defection; however, a more powerful force is at play. Pennsylvania is a huge Blue State that has been pivotal in many recent Presidential elections. Historically blue states like Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania have gone to the Republicans when the Republican Candidate has won. The 2008 Presidential win for President Obama signaled a shift back to the original status. Specter’s defection implies a continued movement in that direction for Democrats, as he said in his new conference, “Last year, more than 200,000 Republicans in Pennsylvania changed their registration to become Democrats.”
- Filibuster – The unique laws of the Senate allow for filibustering, which can prevent any bill from coming to the floor for a vote. To overcome this action requires a super-majority of 60 Senators – Democrats now have that ability and Republicans are feeling “marginalized and increasingly disenfranchised” according to CBS.
Defections from the Republican Party
The political boom aside, the defection has a more ominous effect on the Republican Party that Specter has forcefully brought to their attention. Moderate Republicans are changing sides due to either ideological discomfort or political pressure from right winged groups. In his conference Specter informed, “Since my election in 1980, as part of the Reagan Big Tent, the Republican Party has moved far to the right. “ CBS News reported “Republican…George Voinovich blamed the Club for Growth for imposing a right-wing litmus test that chased Arlen Specter out of the Republican Party.”
Paul Kane and Chris Cilizza of the Washington Post reported on April 29th that moderate Republican Senator Olympia Snowe of Maine said “the news [was] ‘devastating’ for a party that has been unable to appeal to centrist voters.” The Post continued, Snowe declared, “Many Republicans feel alienated and disaffected from the party.”
Specter argued that “the organization, which targets moderate GOP incumbents…had helped undermine the competitiveness of the Republican Party….” Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah said in the CBS News report, “Let’s just be honest about it: In blue states, we’re not going to get conservative Republicans. It’s just that simple.”
Political Conclusion for Republican Conservatives
The facts are straight forward; Senator Arlen Specter is a Democrat. Members can argue about the ultimate impact of this decision but history can not ignore the influence it is having on the Republican Party, as represented in the CBS News report, “Republicans Feud Over Specter.”
While Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who narrowly won re-election in 2008, attempts to minimize the Specter defection, said in the Post article, "This is not a national story. This is a Pennsylvania story.” The Senator is reminded, “All politics is local!”
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