The Middle East has remained unchanged for 32 years with the occasional war, dictatorial modification and monarchial accessions; however, uprisings from Tunis to Saana are rapidly altering the landscape. This turmoil in North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula has put into play a potential game changer as the powerful revolution bug has attacked Syria. While the events in Libya have remained in the forefront of news the last several weeks, the Syria uprisings may have a larger impact on the region than any other action.
Petrodollars are driving coalition forces in its decision to aid rebel bands of civilians, who want to topple the dictator Moammar al Gaddafi. However, the undisputed repressive Arab dictatorial powerhouse in the Middle East has been Bashar Assad’s Syria. Surrounded by sycophants and an authoritative secret police force, Assad, like his father before him, has ruled the nation with an iron fist, undeterred by external forces.
Yet, like few other places in the MENA region, Syria and its neighbors have the most to lose with the current unrest. The focal point for events stretching from North Africa to the Pakistani border, Syria could become the flash point for ethnic tension. Sunni and Shiite sectarian anxiety remains and continues to grow a events flourish around the region. Following the violence in Iraq and Bahrain, Syria could now become the “OK Corral” of the Middle East.
Shiite
Iran – On the Shiite side Iran is the gorilla in the room; however, without Syria, Iran may lose its proxy hold on Hezbollah rebels throughout the region. Located in south Lebanon, Israel and even Syria, Hezbollah is the staging point for Iranian intervention in the Mediterranean area.
Iraq – having survived years of her own ethnic civil war, one of the last nations an observer would suspect becoming involved with renewed tensions would be war torn Iraq. However, as evident in Bahrain, Iraq’s Shiite Muslim majority are willing and able to support fellow sect members at the expense of the ruling minority Sunnis in Bahrain.
Lebanon – the proverbial whipping boy for Middle East violence could see their precarious balance of power distorted with an unstable Syria. Thirty five percent of the population in Lebanon are Shias; however, the vast majority live in the southern region along the treacherous Israeli border. Without a Syrian Baath party counterbalance to control the flow of Iranian Shiite influence, that border could flair anew with war.
Sunni
Bahrain – suffering her own internal uprising and occupation by Saudi Arabia, world attention on Syria may provide impetus to renew ethnic clashes in the island nation.
Gulf Nations – Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates each have a different degree of internal sectarian hostilities, while they are ruled by Sunni Royalty. Qatar and the UAE have a small Shiite population; however, Oman has had some protests the last few weeks while Shiite ministers in Kuwait’s parliament have threatened various types of actions should the Sunni Royal family support the Bahraini family with troops.
Jordan – demonstrations have been ongoing for two months in Jordan, but in recent days the problems have increased in intensity. The first death has occurred in Amman's Nasser Square as violence spilled over the border from Syria. On March 26, 2011, Haaretz News reported, that a group of protesters, from the March 24 Youth group confronted pro Jordanian marchers. Prime Minister Marouf Bakhit accused the Muslim Brotherhood movement, of being behind that organization. “We have convincing evidence that they…received instructions from groups in Egypt and Syria," the Prime Minister asserted.
Saudi Arabia – the counterbalance to Iran’s Shiite influence is Saudi’s Sunni Monarchy. Fully aware of the Shiite Ayatollahs’ revolution against the Iranian monarchy, Saudi Arabia’s King views Shiite influence as a direct threat against his American backed regime. As Iranian influence and power increase in the region, the Saudi king calls upon allies for direct intervention. “Cut of the head of the snake,” declared King Abdullah according to a November 30, 2010, Zee New reported, originally reported in WikiLeaks documents.
As seen in her recent incursion into Bahrain, Saudi Arabia’s Royal family will not tolerate a strong Shiite uprising on any boundary. Nevertheless an unstable Syria may present just such a problem and Saudi Arabia’s reaction could be highly destabilizing to the area.
Wild Cards
Israel – a wounded Assad may attempt to divert attention away from his internal actions and initiate conflict with the ever present troubled child – Israel. In a desperate attempt at self-preservation, it is possible the despotic regime may instigate war with the Jewish state to redirect world attention. Potentially dividing the Arab and western allies, he may gain support from dissident Islamic nations. A pro-Palestinian rally cry would be difficult for any Muslim leader to ignore and may allow Assad to maintain power.
Turkey – having recently invested $1 billion in Syria, Turkey is still bullish on the country as Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan met with Syria’s Assad on March 25, 2011. However, ethnic violence may have an increasing effect on Turkey should Syria fall into turmoil. Ten percent of Syria’s population is ethnic Kurds which are currently at war with Turkey. An unstable Syria, with a large population sympathetic to the rebels in Turkey could find Syria become a cross border safe haven for Turkey’s dissidents.
Change has come to the Middle East rapidly; but now one tiny nation may have an influence greater than all the others. Syria can change the complexity of the region in a manner that was incomprehensible only a few months ago. Her internal reach for democracy and her desire to topple a despotic regime may lead to instability the planet can ill afford. After all her wars to prevent western ideas, it is ironic that Syrian freedom could be the root of her greatest destruction.
Frank W. Hardy - Frank has 36 years of airline experience navigating every ocean & continent. Flying 25,000 hours in 42 years presents a rare historical ...
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